Watchlist Performance, 4 Years Later

The below results highlight the importance of market timing.  2013 was an amazing year for US Stock Market with the S&P500 returning 32.39% including dividends, a fortunate time to start a blog and post results.  There were some incredible returns if you followed the ideas from the site. If you bought all 30 ideas using the simple criteria you beat the S&P500 by 13.71% with a total return of 46.10%.  Of course, that would have meant holding all 30 stocks without selling the entire year.  And there were no ideas after March.  On the other hand that does not include potential dividends and pyramiding. There were some big winners, so returns could also have been amplified.  EVC at 150.62% and SFUN at 177.10% for example.  The biggest loser was just -12.73% with NSM.

I also ran some calculations if one had held all ideas until end of year 2016 which highlights that most of these type of growth ideas are not intended to be held for years.  One would have returned 43.05% from the time of each purchase, 3.05% less than if one had sold at the end of year 2013.  On the other hand, if one had held onto some of the historically less volatile growth ideas, there were some great returns for those 3 years, such as V 90.29%, PCLN 97.29%, and GOOG 118.11%.  The biggest loser would have been -77.62% with LL.

Overall performance through End of Year 2013:  46.10%

Top 5:

SFUN: 177.10%

EVC: 150.62%

QIHU: 136.91%

JAZZ: 110.90%

LNKD: 83.69%

Bottom 5:

NSM: -12.73%

CVLT: -10.47%

URBN: -9.47%

PHM: -8.74%

SODA: -8.18%

Overall performance through End of Year 2016:  43.05%

Watchlist Performance

Past performance does not guarantee or imply future results. Disclaimer

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Back to the trading desk

I stopped trading for a few years as I decided to focus time and capital on a real estate opportunity.  But I maintained the site and excitement that I would one day get back into it.  It’s been a few months now since I have been trading again.  Tomorrow will be 4 years to the day since my last StockTwits and Twitter post which I set as my recent goal to start sharing ideas again.  There may be less frequent posts than when I first started the site but hopefully I can provide some value again.  I am working on a post to reflect the results of the Watchlist Performance end of year 2013 and end of year 2016.

3 Charts – ASGN, HCA, and RYL

Follow Up to the previous 3 Charts – CVLT, EVC, and GEOS:

  • CVLT:   Impressive breakout on Thursday in 319% above average volume.  So far this year it has come back to test its 50dma after similar impressive move. Keep this in mind if you caught the breakout or if you are still looking for entry.
  • EVC:  Another impressive breakout in 220% above average volume.  This stock is in the hot TV group along with SBGI, BLC, NXST, etc.  Most of the names in this group are thinly traded and especially volatile.
  • GEOS:  Did not breakout last week but still is holding up very well.  Continue to keep an eye on this one as well as others in the group such as CAM, EXH, DRQ, and FTI.

This week:

Antichartjunk Week 12 ASGN Chart

Antichartjunk Week 12 HCA Chart

Antichartjunk Week 12 RYL Chart   

All Week 12 Members

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Week 12 (3/18/13)

Buy or Sell:  Buy

Long into Week 12 – CFNL, CHUY, CVRR (new), DGI, GEOS, GOOG, HCA, HTZ, LAD, LNKD, QIHU, STRZA, TVL, XXIA

Add to watchlist as initial or secondary pivots:

ASGN – 25.08 to 26.33 (new)

AMZN – 284.82 to 299.06

CVLT – 79.63 to 83.61

DGI – 29.85 to 31.34 (aggressive pivot, new), 30.55 to 32.08

FB – 29.18 to 30.64

GEOS – 113.83 to 119.52

HCA – 39.65 to 41.63

ICPT – 42.77 to 44.91

ITB – 23.97 to 25.17

IMAX – 26.01 to 27.31

JAZZ – 60.01 to 63.01

MTH – 44.95 to 47.20 (new)

NSM – 42.26 to 44.38

OCN – 41.88 to 43.97

PCLN – 722.01 to 758.11

PHM – 22.01 to 23.11 (new)

QIHU – 34.47 to 36.16

RYL – 43.10 to 45.26 (new)

SFUN – 28.32 to 29.74

SODA – 52.77 to 55.41

WAC – 50.01 to 52.51

V – 161.81 to 169.90 (aggressive pivot), 162.87 to 171.01 

Add to watchlist as secondary pivots (or higher risk initial pivots):

ARMH – bounce from 50dma

BPOP – bounce from 50dma

FLT – 73.00 (new)

FMX – bounce from 50dma (new)

GS – bounce from 50dma

ICPT – bounce from 50dma (low volume = higher risk)

JPM – bounce from 50dma (new)

KORS – bounce from 50dma

MDCO – bounce from 50dma

MNTX – bounce from 50dma (new)

MSG – bounce from 50dma (new)

OCN – bounce from 50dma

PJC – bounce from 50dma

PRLB – bounce from 50dma (new)

RHI – bounce from 50dma (new)

TVL – bounce from 50dma

UTEK – 42.44

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Performance Summary Week 11 (3/11/13)

Introduction to Watchlist Performance

Watchlist Performance

Performance Summary:

New entries: EVC, CVLT

Overall performance through Week 11 (3/11/13): +7.38%

Performance through Week 1 (12/31/12): +6.19%

Week 1 to Week 8 change: +1.19%

Performance through Week 5 (1/28/13): +7.50%

Week 5 to Week 8 change: +0.12%

Performance through Week 10 (3/4/13): +7.25%

Week 10 to Week 11 change: +0.13%

Top 3 since Week 48 (11/26/12):

LNKD: +50.37%

CELG: +39.63%

HTZ: +36.67%

Bottom 3 since Week 48 (11/26/12):

RAX: -29.21%

THO: -8.70%

YNDX: -8.14%

Past performance does not guarantee or imply future results. Disclaimer

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Performance Summary Week 10 (3/4/13)

Introduction to Watchlist Performance

Watchlist Performance

Performance Summary:

New entries: CFNL

Overall performance through Week 10 – Day 3 (3/6/13): +8.29%

Performance through Week 1 (12/31/12): +6.19%

Week 1 to Week 8 change: +2.10%

Performance through Week 5 (1/28/13): +7.50%

Week 5 to Week 8 change: +0.79%

Performance through Week 9 (2/25/13): +5.44%

Week 9 to Week 10 – Day 3 change: +2.85%

Top 3 since Week 48 (11/26/12):

LNKD: +49.83%

CELG: +38.34%

HTZ: +33.65%

Bottom 3 since Week 48 (11/26/12):

RAX: -22.84%

STX: -13.54%

THO: -10.99%

Past performance does not guarantee or imply future results. Disclaimer

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3 Charts – CVLT, EVC, and GEOS

Follow Up to the previous 3 Charts – ICPT, IMAX, and MDC:

  • ICPT:   A new IPO and a very thinly traded stock.  Still holding its 50dma but never really bounced from it.  It now is forming a base with a potential 42.77 pivot. 
  • IMAX: One of the leaders in the very hot and at present the top industry group along with LGF, DISCA, NFLX, CNK, and CSTR.  IMAX technically broke out already but it may test its 50dma.  Volume on the weekly chart is what you would like to see – relatively higher on up weeks and lower on down weeks.
  • MDC:  The homebuilders and ITB appeared to be selling off at the end of last month but have surged back and may be setting up again.  MDC still looks OK and is now above its 50dma. RYL, SPF, and DHI are worthy of consideration as well.

This week:

 Antichartjunk Week 11 CVLT Chart

Antichartjunk Week 11 EVC Chart

Antichartjunk Week 11 GEOS Chart

All Week 11 Members

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